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Politics, Economics and Opinions for the 21st Century.
GREETINGS WEB-STERS! WELCOME TO THE WORLD WIDE WEB'S E-ZINE OF
UNCONVENTIONAL OPINION AND COMMENTARY. A COLLECTION OF MY RECENT
EDITORIAL COMMENTS ON WALL STREET, NATO, THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND
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WHAT CHINA WANTS
It is becoming increasingly obvious that what China wants is NOT AN APOLOGY
for the spy-plane incident; BUT, AN APOLOGY FOR THE LAST 200 YEARS OF
"WESTERN OPPRESSION" OF CHINA. How long do you think it will take the Bush
Administration to recognize this? They seem rather "dazed and confused."
And, the Vice President's appearance with Tim Russert today was no help.
(Although I would urge journalists to "go easy" on Cheney because of his bad
heart.) BUT, MAKE NO MISTAKE THIS INCIDENT COULD BE THE FIRST DEFINING EVENT
OF THE 21st CENTURY. A Century that China thinks will be the CHINESE
CENTURY. At least, in Asia. Note too that the Chinese Premier was in LATIN
AMERICA ALL WEEK! What's THAT all about? Need a hint? Still, talk of a new
Cold War seems rather unusual, at this point, since Russia was NEVER a big
market for, or supplier of, trade for US Corporations. NOT SO WITH CHINA
TODAY. SO, BE NOT DECIEVED BY THE CONFUSION IN WASHINGTON. CHINA KNOWS FULL
WELL WHAT IT WANTS, AND HOW TO GET IT. AND, IT IS NOT AN APOLOGY FOR THE
DOWNED PLANE. I am amazed that the media has played along with the story for
so long. Future Historians will marvel that the US allowed the world's
biggest Communist/Socialist country to become SO IMPORTANT to the Domestic
Economy of the world's biggest Capitalist Economy. It baffles me even now,
so just imagine what future historians will make of it! Make no mistake,
like the Roman Emperors in ancient times, we have negotiated with the
"barbarian" for too long. And, now, the barbarians are NOW ONLY at the
gates, they are inside the city itself. WELCOME TO THE 21st CENTURY!
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MARKETS "DIS" GREENSPAN
The US Financial marketsappear to believe that Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan
would never do anything to burst the bubble on Wall Street. And, they may be
right! For better or worse the stock market bubble is Greenspan's baby. His
historical reputation will rise or fall based on what happens to the bubble.
The problem is the bubble has become so crucial to the global economy that
few people can even comprehend a "post-bubble" economy in the US. What would
the Wall Street/Washington leadership tell all those mom and pop 401(k)
investors whose life savings have evaporated into money heaven? Greenspan is
the first Fed Chaiman in history to fully embrace a stock market bubble for
better or worse. In the 1920's and the 1960's, the Fed "took the punch bowl
away" deliberately. Greenspan refuses to do that, and I don't think he will
ever do anything against the Wall Street bubble during his tenure. Unless,
of course, the Dollar were to collapse and take the bond market with it. A
strong Dollar and a weak Yen has been the "sine qua non" of this market.
But, in truth, that call is now being controlled by the Bank of Japan. Not
the Fed! We are heading for a summer blow-off top of historic proportions
because the Fed and the bubble are "joined at the hip" for better or worse.
And, God help the 401(k) investor if Japan gets restless!
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THE CRISIS IN KOSOVO
KOSOVO: A POSTMORTEM
Perhaps I should explain some of my comments on the Kosovo Crisis as laid
out below. I wrote these comments during the War itself. At that time I felt
that the destruction of Serbia would solve none of the problems in the
Balkans. I also felt that the NGO's on the ground in Kosovo were doing a
good job of controlling a chaotic situation. I am not a Serb. Nor am I
particularly pro-Serbian, and I am Not Anti-Albanian. I wish both sides
well, and hope that they can eventually work things out in the region. Many
people, conservative and liberal, were against the bombing. Particularly,
the bombing of civilians. Albanians, as well as Serbs, suffered from the
bombing. And, of course, we can't forget the Chinese Embassy. The Western
Media grossly over-simplified the situation in Serbia. And, it may have made
nationalist heroes out of the current Serb leadership. As for the Albanians,
their real motives were, more or less, hidden from the view of Western
observers. Their goal was always nothing less than an Indepentant Greater
Albania supported by NATO. An independant Greater Albania was never on
NATO's agenda in the Balkans. But, that's how it turned out. Right now the
Balkans are, and will remain, a chaotic mess thanks to NATO's policy mistakes.
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NATO-KLA WAR INEVITABLE
A war between the KLA and NATO forces occupying Kosovo now seems inevitable.
NATO as emboldened all Albanians in the Balkans by its actions in Kosovo.
NATO may now have no choice but to establish a Greater Albania in the region
and to support it economically and militarily for the indefinite future. The
KLA has NATO between a rock and a hard place, because Kosovo has now been
"ethnically cleansed" of its Serb population by the KLA/NATO alliance.
NATO's contempt for the Serbian leadership, not its affection for the
Kosovar Albanians has lead to the inevitable establishment of an anarchic
Greater Albanian state in the Balkans. Having bombed the Chinese embassy in
Belgrade, NATO now seems itself to be a victim of the proverbial Chinese
curse: Be careful what you wish for--You may get it!
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SORRY SERBIA
It now turns out that all those atrocity stories coming out of Kosovo may
have been a KLA publicity stunt. If so, NATO was certainly a willing dupe,
primarily because of the contempt NATO has for the present Serbian
leadership. But, what about the Serbian people? Their country is in ruins
because NATO didn't check out the facts behind the KLA's Stories. This makes
the Chinese Embassy fiasco look like a minor mistake. Furthermore, NATO is
now stuck running Kosovo, and probably a yet to be formed Greater Albania,
for the indefinite future. This could get very expensive for NATO's
taxpayers since a Greater Albania could probably best be described as
Europe's answer to Haiti. The magnitude of NATO's error in Kosovo is only
now starting to be discovered.
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SERBIA'S REAL FRIEND
Is Bill Clinton the best thing that ever happen to Serbia? I say yes.
Consider: Appearently, the entire NATO-Serbia War was about who would have
the honor of disarming the Kosovo Liberation Army. As policemen for the
world, NATO thought it should have the honor. As leader of Yugoslavia,
Solvodan Melosovic, inexplicably, thought it was his responsibility. NATO
won. NATO will now run Kosovo as its protectorate, being fair and impartial
to both Serb and Albanian. So what's to fight over? This is the best thing
that ever happen, in Kosovo, for the Serbs. NATO will now keep the Kosovar
Albanians under control free of charge. And Kosovo will remain part of
Yugoslavia. Furthermore, the impartial rule of law under the United Nations
will prevail. So what is not the like for the Serbs? When NATO is done with
Kosovo it should consider going into Albania proper and stop the anarchy and
chaos there as well. But, will the Albanians eventually resent NATO's
interference and see NATO as their new masters? We shall see. Finally, all
this wonderful peace making can get very expensive as the US Bond Market is
now starting to realize. And, that could be the real story in the end.
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TERRORIST CENTRAL
Does NATO realize the long term consequences of its actions in Serbia and
Kosovo? I predict that within a year both Serbia and Kosovo will be base
camps for terrorism against American and European interests world-wide.
First, the Serbs will blame the US and NATO for the near total destruction
of their country and economy. But, being weak in high-tech military might,
they will resort, by necessity, to terrorist acts to seek their revenge.
This could take some surprising turns, with considerable help from Russia
and China, both of whom were openly humiliated by NATO during the recent
war. But, NATO's new aggressiveness demands some type of response from the
anti-NATO bloc. We shall soon see what that response will be. Second, the
emboldened Kosovo Liberation Army will quickly fall out with Europe and
NATO. NATO never really suppored the KLA anyway. And, NATO won't spend big
money rebuilding Kosovo either. Kosovo will decend into an Albanian-style
anarchy. Amazingly, NATO will be blamed for Kosovo's desturction. And, with
KLA ties to the middle-east, a Muslim Kosovo will soon become a base camp
for Islamic terror in Europe and elsewhere. Saddam should be very pleased
with NATO's recent handiwork. Finally, the Balkans will end this century as
they began it, a hot bed of coffee shop anarchists, cafe politicians and
bomb throwing terrorists. Is anyone really better off now than they were
before this all began? Is this progress?
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A MODEST PROPOSAL TO END THE WAR
Clearly, NATO's genuine concern for the plight of the ethnic Albanians seems
to be running into an equal concern for avoiding ground troops in Kosovo. I
have a modest proposal to get around the problem. NATO should bring the
remanants of Saddam's Iraqi army into Albania where they could link up with
the muslim KLA and together fight their way into Kosovo for the glory of
Islam, with NATO providing air cover only.This would get NATO off the horns
of a dilemma and allow the Albanian-Irai forces to establish a muslim
Greater Albania in Europe without shedding a drop of Christian NATO blood.
Additionally, this plan of pitting one Russian ally, Iraq, against another
Russian ally, Serbia, would throw the Russians a knuckleball at the worst
possible moment. Unless something happens soon, mark my words, the Albanians
will soon be blaming NATO for the destruction of Kosovo and making a
humanitarian disaster in the region.
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NUCLEAR BONDS
Worried about World War III?
Americans should be less worried about nuclear bombs and more worried about
"nuclear bonds." Here's what I mean: In all the wars of this century,
America has been the world's greatest industrial power and the world's
largest creditor nation. But, now we are a nation of consumers and debtors,
not producers and lenders, like we once were. Today, we depend on the stock
and bond markets to keep us wealthy. In the 1960's, the Vietnam War trashed
the US dollar, causing the world to abandon the Bretton Woods currency
system, and its gold standard, which served us well up to 1971. The result
was a period of economic unpleasantness, and American de-industialization,
that we now call the 1970's. The war in the Balkans has renewed the weak
dollar threat. And, it could not have come at a worst time--at the end of a
Federal Reserve sanctioned period of easy money, high debt and a jumbo sized
stock market bubble to boot. With so many fickle foreigners holding our
bonds, like Japan, China and others, and with the American savings rate
somewhere near zero, we really can not afford to scare global investors with
military adventurism in the Balkans. Because, contrary to popular opinion,
the dollar is just one paper currency among many. It's not gold. It's not
oil. It's just paper.So, fellow baby boomers, put away those love beads and
bell-bottoms. And, watch the bond market deliver a summer of peace and love.
Nuclear bonds are much stronger than nuclear bombs.
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FORGET PEACE!
There will be no peace, because NATO wants only war. But Why? First, it's
not about Kosovo. It never was. It's about Russia. The geo-political
thinkers at NATO feel that Russia is currently at its point of maximum
weakness and the US is at its point of maximum strength. This window of
opportuity to shape the 21st Century will not last for long. NATO sees
itself as controling the European and Asian land mass from the Atlantic to
the Pacific in the next century. Furthermore, the next government in Russia
will be radical ultra-nationalist and very dangerous to NATO. So, NATO sees
the coming war with Russia as a preemptive strike. Sort of like attacking
the Wiemar Republic in Germany before Hitler could come to power. NATO is
currently asking the Russians to negotiate their own extinction as a global
power. Will this dangerous policy work? We shall see. But, I doubt it. NATO
assumes it can always control the situation which is problematic at best. We
are probably in the very early phases of World War III. There will be no
peace. Now you know why.
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WAR FOR PEACE
Peace in Kosovo?
Never. Not now. NATO's Orwellian war for peace in Kosovo was so poorly
planned and ham-fisted that the prospect for peace in Kosovo is now all but
lost. The situation is so surreal that one almost suspects that somehow Bill
Clinton may have been trying to wag-the-dog again with one of his patented
dictator-of-the-month bombing campaigns. This time to side track the
bomb-shell China spying scandel. Neverheless, NATO and NATO's taxpayers now
owe the Kosovar Albanians big time. The Kosovars could never go back to live
among their Serb neighbors now. That well has been poisoned. The problem is
that NATO has never really supported Albania or the Muslim Kosovo Liberation
Army. Albania is a failed state with no real government and no real
economy--other than crime and corruption. Most of the country is run by
armed clans and criminal gangs. To salvage Albania now would require massive
Western aid and a virtual takeover of Albania by NATO. And, there is no
assurance that the Albanians won't turn on NATO eventually, and blame NATO
for the catastrophe that has now occurred. Kosovo is just the beginning. The
genie is out of the bottle in the Balkans. Bill Clinton now has his legacy.
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SOCCER MOMS AT WAR
What exactly are Bill Clinton and his soccer mom supporters up to in the
Balkans? I call it the principle of "Big Mother." In the 21st century,
according to this new doctrine, truly soverign states will not exist. All
nations will have to abide by certain pre-determined international norms.
All national leaders will hold office only conditionally and on good
behavior. This looks good on paper. But, the problem is that this doctrine
assumes that right and wrong are absolutes. When, in fact, they are often
relative, particularly in the field of international affairs. So, if I'm
right, then, by defintion, you must be wrong, according to this new
doctrine. If NATO is to be the supreme arbitor of right and wrong in the new
world order then it is justified in bombing Serbia. In effect NATO has
become "Big Mother."Big Mother has now, it seems, decided that Serbs will be
send to their rooms, the lights turned out. And no TV!
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LESSONS OF 1944
It now seems that NATO is about to re-learn the lessons that Hitler learned
in 1944. Namely, that an offensive war is different that a defensive war. A
defensive war is fought to protect home, family and nation. Just ask anyone
in England, France, Poland or Russia who remembers World War II. NATO's
greatest strengh has been its defensive prosture. An offensive war, on the
other hand, is fought, by necessity, for some abstract grand ideal--to unite
the German race, to stop communism in Vietnam, or to premote ethnic equality
in Kosovo. So, here's the problem: the defeat of a country's military by an
invading army is not the defeat of that country's people. When Hitler beat
the French army he still had an overwhelming problem--the French people.
Does NATO intend to fight a war of annihilation against the Serbian people
who have vowed to fight to the last man? I think not. NATO's Balkan war is
therefore, unwinnable.
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KOSOVO ISN'T MONICA
The progaganda that is coming out of the White House on the War in Kosovo is
as masterfull as it was during the impeachment proceedings with Monica. But,
with Kosovo there is a big difference. The war in Kosovo is destablizing the
world. The moderate government in Russia is being attacked from the left, by
Communists, and from the right, by nationalists, to intervene militarily in
Yugoslavia. The situation is very unstable. Many Russians seem to want a
re-match of the Cold War just like the Germans wanted a re-match of World
War I. Hopefully, cooler heads will prevail on both sides. But, all parties
see this war through thir own unique historical prism. There is a huge
difference between American logic, Russian logic, and Yugoslav logic on this
matter that should be considered before its too late. We know that Mr.
Clinton is a master of spinning stories to the less informed members of the
American public. But, the Kosovo story is not as easy as the Monica story.
Mr. Clinton will not be able to just dump Kosovo like he dumped Monica. We
seem to be stumbling toward Armageddon.
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EUROPEAN VIETNAM
It is said that truth is the first causalty of war. If that is true, then
the collateral damage is surely to people's ability to think rationally.
Both sides in the NATO-Serbia War are already using propaganda to the outer
limit. NATO says repeatedly that Serb leaders are Satan incarate and the
Serb army ther evil spawn. Yet, Serbs are wearing targets, forming
candle-lit human shields and preparing for the martyrdom of their country.
The Albanian Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) is conscripting Kosovo men by
force, and providing NATO and Western journalists with a steady stream of
atrocity stories--each more bizarre than the last, if possible. The media
can't get enough. But, here's the problem: Sooner or later the truth will
out. Just like it did in Vietnam. Eventually, Serbs will get off their
cultural superiority high horse. NATO will have to decide whether it really
wants, and can afford, Greater Albania and its Balkan diaspora as its
protectorate for the next 30 years. And, the KLA will have to decide whether
its a legitimate government in waiting or just another criminal syndicate
operating inside Kosovo. Many people with great wisdom have advised against
involvement in Balkan civil strife. This is going to be a European Vietnam.
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SOME PERSONAL COMMENTS FROM THE WRITER ABOUT EDITORIALS AND OPINION WRITING.
I AM:
A habitual writer of op-ed pieces.
I consider it to be an art form that we may be in danger of losing. Maybe
the World Wide Web will cause a revival of citizen commentary on civic
affairs. Some years ago, I was a history major at the University of
Michigan, and I needed a couple of extra credit hours to graduate, so I took
a two hour journalism class called "The Editorial." I've been writing
editorials ever since. I have always been impressed with the fact that the
Federalist Papers where originally letters to the editor. Unfortuately, many
of today's newspapers choose to write only "safe" editorials that reach
their readers at the lowest common denominator and don't offend advertisers.
This gives the citizen-writer an advantage over the paid editorial writer.
Outsiders can say anything they want and not be directly accountable to the
newspaper's owners. We can, in effect, be the "evil twin" of the editor and
not have to answer to anyone in top management. After all, its just free
speech right?
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