Fingers in the Pie
July 16, 2002
Yesterday's late-hour market snapback is certain to rekindle rumors
that the major stock market indexes are manipulated at crucial times
– possibly with the Treasury or Federal Reserve as a conspirator.
Whether those rumors are true or not – and I believe they probably are –
there is no question that yesterday's late recovery did not involve
small investors: It was an institutional phenomenon.
The reason that questions will be asked is that market breadth was much
worse than the performance of the indexes. For example, on the New York
Stock Exchange, losers topped gainers 3 to 1, although the Dow Jones
industrial average was down only 0.5 percent and the Standard & Poor's
500 down only 0.4 percent.
The Dow was down 440 at one point; a steep ascent in the last hour and a
half trimmed the loss to 45.34.
It was somewhat reminiscent of Oct. 20, 1987, the day after the huge
market crash, when stocks were plunging a second day, but suddenly
recovered and closed up 100. But losers topped gainers 3 to 1.
It was widely assumed at that time that index futures were manipulated,
perhaps with the connivance of the Fed. It worked. Markets recovered.
Skeptics believe that when the market is sinking too fast, the Fed
and/or Treasury call the big houses on Wall Street and tell them to buy
index futures and options. The short sellers – who bet the market will
go down – immediately smell a manipulation, and hurriedly cover their
shorts by buying stocks. Then buyers, believing there is a rally afoot,
jump in.
Down volume doubled up volume on the New York Stock Exchange, says
Kennedy Gammage of La Jolla's Richland Report. Such statistics "suggest
the crisis-control team was at work," he says.
In response to a command from Washington, D.C., the large Wall Street
houses bought call options on indexes and on the stocks that have the
most weight in the indexes, he says. The houses also buy futures, he
says.
European markets closed down 5 percent yesterday, well before the U.S.
exchanges closed. The dollar was weak. Foreigners have been pulling
money out of U.S. stocks. "The smart money in Europe is skeptical about
our markets," says Gammage. Early in today's session, market technicians
will try to determine whether overseas money is buying or selling.
"Barring any kind of news that would influence things one way or
another, Europe will recover (today)," says E. James Welsh of Carlsbad's
Welsh Money Management. He believes yesterday's rally was rigged.
"Obviously, somebody came in and did purchasing of S&P (Standard &
Poor's) futures," says Welsh.
"It could have been the Fed or the Treasury – as surreptitiously as
possible," he says. Then the shorts covered, buyers jumped aboard and
stocks zoomed back. The rally could continue, "But the ultimate low in
this bear market is quite a bit lower."
Richard Russell of La Jolla's Dow Theory Letters says, "Maybe you can't
call it manipulation," but a lot of mutual funds, some huge, jumped in
and did buying.
He's skeptical of the rally gathering much momentum. "When you get a big
down day and a recovery during the day, it has to go to a plus day,
otherwise they are burning up ammunition," he says. "We just saw them
burning ammunition."
He's not sure if there is a crisis-control team. Other countries such as
Japan openly buy stocks to prop up the market. And many countries try to
drive their own currencies up or down.
"Large institutional investors came into the futures area, it spilled
over into short covering, and then there was bargain-hunting," says Tom
Clutinger of Clutinger Williams & Verhoye.
But although it might have been a technical move yesterday, he believes
that stocks are near a bottom and the long bear market – one of
history's worst – is near an end. "If there is a summer rally, we will
have corporate news to support it," he says.
Cossey
Ernest Frank Cossey, former chief executive of TLC America, was
sentenced to 57 months in prison yesterday by U.S. District Judge
Napoleon A. Jones Jr.
Investors were told they would make 12 to 15 percent a year putting
money into largely rundown real estate properties being fixed for
resale. TLC raised $146 million from 1,850 mainly elderly investors. But
he was spending the money on a lavish lifestyle; it was a Ponzi scheme,
in which early investors are paid off with funds from later investors,
according to Denise L. Rubin, head of Internal Revenue Service criminal
investigations here.
Cossey also placed $20 million of investors' funds into a prime bank
note scheme, in which investors are promised huge returns through
rapid-fire trading of financial paper offshore, according to Daniel E.
Butcher, the assistant U.S. attorney who handled the case.
--
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But if the watchman sees the sword coming and does not blow the trumpet
to warn the people and the sword comes and takes the life of one of
them, that man will be taken away because of his sin, but I will hold
the watchman accountable for his blood." - Eze 33:6
July 16, 2002
Yesterday's late-hour market snapback is certain to rekindle rumors that the
major stock market indexes are manipulated at crucial times – possibly with
the Treasury or Federal Reserve as a conspirator.
Whether those rumors are true or not – and I believe they probably are –
there is no question that yesterday's late recovery did not involve small
investors: It was an institutional phenomenon.
The reason that questions will be asked is that market breadth was much
worse than the performance of the indexes. For example, on the New York
Stock Exchange, losers topped gainers 3 to 1, although the Dow Jones
industrial average was down only 0.5 percent and the Standard & Poor's 500
down only 0.4 percent.
The Dow was down 440 at one point; a steep ascent in the last hour and a
half trimmed the loss to 45.34.
It was somewhat reminiscent of Oct. 20, 1987, the day after the huge market
crash, when stocks were plunging a second day, but suddenly recovered and
closed up 100. But losers topped gainers 3 to 1.
It was widely assumed at that time that index futures were manipulated,
perhaps with the connivance of the Fed. It worked. Markets recovered.
Skeptics believe that when the market is sinking too fast, the Fed and/or
Treasury call the big houses on Wall Street and tell them to buy index
futures and options. The short sellers – who bet the market will go down –
immediately smell a manipulation, and hurriedly cover their shorts by buying
stocks. Then buyers, believing there is a rally afoot, jump in.
Down volume doubled up volume on the New York Stock Exchange, says Kennedy
Gammage of La Jolla's Richland Report. Such statistics "suggest the
crisis-control team was at work," he says.
In response to a command from Washington, D.C., the large Wall Street houses
bought call options on indexes and on the stocks that have the most weight
in the indexes, he says. The houses also buy futures, he says.
European markets closed down 5 percent yesterday, well before the U.S.
exchanges closed. The dollar was weak. Foreigners have been pulling money
out of U.S. stocks. "The smart money in Europe is skeptical about our
markets," says Gammage. Early in today's session, market technicians will
try to determine whether overseas money is buying or selling.
"Barring any kind of news that would influence things one way or another,
Europe will recover (today)," says E. James Welsh of Carlsbad's Welsh Money
Management. He believes yesterday's rally was rigged. "Obviously, somebody
came in and did purchasing of S&P (Standard & Poor's) futures," says Welsh.
"It could have been the Fed or the Treasury – as surreptitiously as
possible," he says. Then the shorts covered, buyers jumped aboard and stocks
zoomed back. The rally could continue, "But the ultimate low in this bear
market is quite a bit lower."
Richard Russell of La Jolla's Dow Theory Letters says, "Maybe you can't
call it manipulation," but a lot of mutual funds, some huge, jumped in and
did buying.
He's skeptical of the rally gathering much momentum. "When you get a big
down day and a recovery during the day, it has to go to a plus day,
otherwise they are burning up ammunition," he says. "We just saw them
burning ammunition."
He's not sure if there is a crisis-control team. Other countries such as
Japan openly buy stocks to prop up the market. And many countries try to
drive their own currencies up or down.
"Large institutional investors came into the futures area, it spilled over
into short covering, and then there was bargain-hunting," says Tom Clutinger
of Clutinger Williams & Verhoye.
But although it might have been a technical move yesterday, he believes that
stocks are near a bottom and the long bear market – one of history's worst –
is near an end. "If there is a summer rally, we will have corporate news to
support it," he says.
Cossey
Ernest Frank Cossey, former chief executive of TLC America, was sentenced to
57 months in prison yesterday by U.S. District Judge Napoleon A. Jones Jr.
Investors were told they would make 12 to 15 percent a year putting money
into largely rundown real estate properties being fixed for resale. TLC
raised $146 million from 1,850 mainly elderly investors. But he was spending
the money on a lavish lifestyle; it was a Ponzi scheme, in which early
investors are paid off with funds from later investors, according to Denise
L. Rubin, head of Internal Revenue Service criminal investigations here.
Cossey also placed $20 million of investors' funds into a prime bank note
scheme, in which investors are promised huge returns through rapid-fire
trading of financial paper offshore, according to Daniel E. Butcher, the
assistant U.S. attorney who handled the case.
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