Latest US India-Pak Nuke War Estimates - 17 Million Casualties
6-2-2
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The Pentagon estimates 17 million nuclear
casualties in South Asia should India and Pakistan embark on a
nuclear strike against one another.
The figure, compiled by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, does
not include long-term deaths from radiation sickness, starvation, or
even victims of fires that could burn long after the initial blasts.
The agency's assessment assumes "100-percent delivery" of both sides
nuclear weapons.
In such a scenario, it predicts between nine million and 12 million
people would die. Another two million to five million would be
injured.
The figure was released on Friday from a recently updated DIA
estimate based on a worst-case scenario in which both sides expend
all their nuclear weapons, and score direct hits.
Pentagon officials stress that the estimates cannot take into account
all the variables that might be involved in a nuclear exchange, and
that the actual casualty figures could be greater or smaller.
U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld hinted on Thursday that he
might share U.S. intelligence estimates about the devastating effect
of a nuclear war with leaders in the region when he visits India and
Pakistan next week.
"Certainly, I'd like to be as helpful as I can to both countries," he
told a Pentagon briefing.
"We've done a lot of thinking about that here in this building and in
the United States government, having had nuclear weapons for --
what? -- 55, 57, 58 years now.
"So we've given a lot of thought to their use and what the effects
are -- what the immediate effects are, what the lingering effects
are, and what the secondary effects can be with respect to other
problems."
DIA estimates of how many nuclear warheads each side has remains
classified, but one official said the estimate is in the "dozens" for
both sides, with most warheads believed to be in the 10-20 kiloton
range.
Other estimates vary, Jane's Strategic Weapon Systems lists Pakistan
as probably having between 25 and 50 nuclear warheads available,
while it estimates India with between 100 and 150 nuclear warheads.
*****
India And Pakistan Show No Sign Of Compromise
By Bill Tarrant and Myra MacDonald
6-5-2
ISLAMABAD/NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India and Pakistan showed no sign of
compromise in a stand-off over Kashmir that has brought the nuclear-
armed foes to the brink of war, as the United States prepared fresh
diplomatic efforts to ease tension.
Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee said he would consider
joint patrols of the Kashmir border if Pakistan ends the incursion of
guerrillas that has stoked a 12-year rebellion in India's only Muslim-
majority state.
But Pakistan's foreign ministry immediately dismissed the proposal as
old hat, adding the suggestion was "unlikely to work."
India also said it saw no sign that cross border infiltration by
Kashmiri separatists had ended -- despite claims from the main
separatist group that no incursions were taking place -- and both
sides traded artillery and mortar fire and used armored vehicles
against each other for the first time in this conflict.
Vajpayee, in Kazakhstan for a regional security meeting, declined to
meet Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf while there, saying he
would only do so once India sees a conclusive end to the
infiltrations.
His defense minister, George Fernandes, said there were no signs of
that so far.
"Whatever information has so far been coming, it does not indicate
there has been any substantial or noticeable reduction in
infiltration," Fernandes told reporters in Bangalore.
Vajpayee said Islamabad must also dismantle militant camps on the
Pakistani side of the line.
"Our stand is clear," he told a news conference following the
security summit. "We want to resolve all issues through bilateral
talks including Kashmir, (but) cross-border terrorism must stop
before any talks can begin."
Pakistan maintains there is no infiltration across the Line of
Control that divides Kashmir and has called for independent
observers, such U.N. monitors, to be allowed to verify this.
"We refuse to accept the Indian claim of being the accusers as well
as the judges. If they are the accusers, let there be somebody else
to act as the judge," Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf told CNN in
an interview.
FIRST ATOMIC WAR
The fledgling nuclear powers have massed a million troops along their
borders, backed by tanks, missiles and artillery. Fears that millions
could be killed in the world's first atomic war have prompted world
leaders to step up diplomatic pressure to pull them back from the
brink
U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage and Defense Secretary
Donald Rumsfeld will visit India and Pakistan in the coming days in a
last-ditch effort to prevent the skirmishing in Kashmir from
escalating into the fourth war between the old foes.
Indian and Pakistani troops shelled each other along the tense
western and northern frontiers -- and also fired from armored
vehicles in the first such exchange in the current stand-off, an
Indian defense official said.
The daily exchanges have been fierce along the western border on the
plains of Punjab around Silkot, an Indian invasion route and scene of
vicious tank battles in previous wars. Reports from Pakistan's
Sialkot city said the fighting has forced hundreds of people to flee
to the relief centers in the city, some because their homes were set
afire by the bombing in the dry 104 degrees Fahrenheit heat.
Towns and villages in Punjab have been staging air raid drills this
week and city workers in Multan are digging trenches for people to
shelter in.
Pakistan says more than 80 people have been killed, several hundred
wounded and hundreds of other displaced in the latest eruption of
shelling along the frontier after a mid-May attack on an Indian army
camp that killed 34 people, including women and children.
DIPLOMATIC INITIATIVES
Embassies in both countries have sent some of their staff and
dependants back home and foreign companies in the two countries have
restricted travel and are making evacuation plans.
Anxieties grew after the United States and Britain urged tens of
thousands of their nationals in the two countries to leave.
Russian President Vladimir Putin met the Indian and Pakistani leaders
separately in Almaty. He said afterwards they had sent "very positive
signals" but differed on preconditions for talks.
Musharraf said he had accepted an invitation to visit Moscow and
added he had expected Putin to invite Vajpayee too, but the Russian
president did not mention an invitation to the Indian prime minister.
Western countries are also trying to prevent tensions from escalating
in Kashmir, already the cause of two of the three wars between the
countries since independence from Britain in 1947.
Although both countries have downplayed the possibility that the next
war could turn nuclear, India has an estimated 100 to 150 nuclear
warheads and Pakistan 25 to 50.
The next round of international diplomacy comes with the visit by
Armitage to Pakistan and India on June 6 and 7.
Rumsfeld will follow him there next week as Washington tries to cool
tensions that could derail its war on terror in the wake of September
11 attacks on New York and Washington.
Before leaving Washington, Rumsfeld stressed he did not intend to be
a mediator.
"I'm not going out there as some sort of a mediator, if that's the
implication of your question," Rumsfeld told reporters at the
Pentagon.
Rumsfeld noted that Armitage would visit India and Pakistan first and
he would probably discuss the issue with Armitage before he made the
stops.
"It partly will depend on how things play out between now and then
and what comes out of the Armitage meetings," Rumsfeld said.
*****
India, Pakistan Exchange Heavy Fire, Five Wounded
6-6-2
JAMMU, India/SIALKOT, Pakistan (Reuters) - Indian and Pakistani
troops again exchanged machinegun and artillery fire across their
frontier in the disputed Kashmir region on Thursday as U.S. pressure
mounted on the nuclear-armed rivals to avert war.
Pakistani military officials and witnesses said five civilians were
injured from heavy Indian firing into villages near Sialkot city, in
Pakistan's Punjab province.
Indian forces started firing into Pakistani Punjab, said a Pakistani
military official in Sialkot. "We also returned the fire," he said.
India reported exchanges further north across the cease-fire line in
southwest Kashmir.
There were the "normal" heavy overnight exchanges of artillery,
mortar and machinegun fire in about a dozen places across the cease-
fire line, an Indian army official said.
The clashes came as President Bush appealed to the leaders of
Pakistan and India to step back from the brink of war, part of a high-
powered U.S. diplomatic drive to defuse tensions.
U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage arrived in Islamabad
on Thursday. He will fly to New Delhi on Friday, ahead of a visit to
the region by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.
India and Pakistan have stepped up the skirmishes across their tense
border since a May 14 attack on an Indian army camp in Indian-ruled
Kashmir.
India blames Pakistan-based militants for the attack and also for the
December raid on the Indian parliament that triggered the
mobilization of almost a million troops by the two sides along their
long border.
The conflict took a new turn on Wednesday when the two armies used
armored vehicles for the first time to target each other.
*****
India Plans To Launch War Within Two Weeks
By Rahul Bedi in New Delhi
The Independent - London
6-6-2
India's military is seeking final authorisation to invade the
Pakistani side of divided Kashmir in the middle of this month to
destroy the camps of Islamic militants.
The planned campaign would be similar to the American attack in
Afghanistan, in which air strikes would be followed by ground
assaults by special forces transported by helicopter, military
sources said yesterday.
Smart bombs and other advanced ordnance are reported to have been
loaded on to French-made Mirage 2000H and Russian-built MiG-27
aircraft at bases in northern and western India.
As Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, strengthened his warning to
Britons to leave the region, military planners in Delhi expressed
confidence that a war would not boil over into a nuclear exchange.
A senior Indian official accused Britain, America and other western
countries of "adding their weight to Pakistan's nuclear blackmail" by
telling their citizens to leave.
"This is jumping the gun," he said. "Our intention is not to have an
all-out war. It would be a limited action."
Most senior Indian officers expect that the conflict would last about
a week before pressure from America and other powers forced a
ceasefire.
One officer said he believed there was only the "slimmest chance" of
nuclear weapons being used. "We will call Pakistan's nuclear bluff,"
he said. It [the nuclear factor] cannot deter us any more."
The Indians want to move before the arrival of heavy monsoon rains at
the beginning of July make military operations impossible.
The tension was underlined by the Foreign Office's second warning to
Britons to leave the region.
Last week Mr Straw said they should "consider" leaving. Yesterday he
said they "should" do so amid evidence that the first advice had been
widely ignored. Officials say there are some 20,000 Britons in India,
but unofficial estimates are much higher.
As America issued equally robust advice to its 60,000 citizens, a
senior Indian planning officer said that Washington and London knew
that action was imminent.
"The US-led move out of Delhi indicates that Washington has been
informed of India's intentions of hitting Pakistan and is taking them
seriously," he said.
Japan's foreign minister, Yoriko Kawaguchi, cancelled a trip to the
region hours after speaking to Mr Straw. Tokyo refused to give a
reason, saying only that "there were various considerations".
India's plan of attack is to seize and hold tracts of Pakistani
Kashmir, providing the government with a much-needed military triumph
and the military with improved defensive positions against Islamic
militants.
Officers indicated that the air force was poised to execute a
strategy developed over several years to strike at 50 to 75 militant
bases and a handful of other targets in Kashmir.
The Indians would then send troops across the high mountain passes in
helicopters. Planners expect major casualties as the helicopters
cross four lines of Pakistani air defences equipped with advanced
radar.
Targets will include a bridge across the Karakoram highway connecting
China to the region and at least three others linking Pakistani
Kashmir to the rest of the country.
Their destruction would prevent China from replenishing its ally
Pakistan's weaponry. It would also cut off supply routes from
Pakistan to front-line units.
India's broad strategy is to execute air strikes that will induce
Pakistan into extending the conflict by opening a wider front.
President Bush telephoned both leaders to urge calm and the crisis
dominated talks in London between Tony Blair and Donald Rumsfeld, the
American defence secretary, who is on his way to India and Pakistan.
The two countries have massed more than a million men on their border
since the crisis began with an attack by militants on the Indian
parliament in December.
Relations worsened after another attack last month in which 22 wives
and children of Indian army personnel were killed. In the latest
diplomatic rebuff, Pakistan rejected an Indian offer to establish a
joint border monitoring force to help halt incursions by Islamic
militants into Indian-controlled Kashmir.
India's military believes that it now has political backing for war.
An officer said the beleaguered ruling coalition was "fully aware"
that backing down at this juncture would mean political suicide.
The Indian armed forces have been losing men for 13 years in fighting
in Kashmir. By attacking soon, an officer said, they planned to set
back Pakistan's military capability by at least 30 years, pushing it
into the military "dark ages". India has assured Washington that its
forces would give the American bases at Jacobabad, Pasni and
Dalbandin close to the Afghan border a wide berth.
An army officer said: "Casualties in men and machines in such an
operation will be high and the military has firmly told the
politicians to prepare the nation for losses and delayed results, as
fighting will be fierce."
Pakistan has concentrated the majority of its forces in Kashmir and
would unleash its Scud-like Chinese M 9 and M 11 ballistic missiles.
*****
India & Pak - This Time There Is No Hope Of A Clean Conflict
By Kuldip Nayar
The Times - London
6-7-2
India and Pakistan have fought two wars: in 1965 and 1971.
They were 'clean' wars, unlike those experienced in Europe. There
were no attacks on cities, no civilians were killed. Envoys of the
two countries did not leave their posts and the Governments involved
never told foreign citizens to leave.
People on both sides knew that there was a battle between the
soldiers some distance away on the front. The public learnt about it
on the radio or read about it in the newspapers. Now, however, the
two countries are quivering on the brink of disaster. Their forces,
one million soldiers, have been standing eyeball to eyeball across
the Line of Control for the past six months.
Shelling across the border is increasing and tension is mounting. War
may have broken out suddenly in the past. But they knew it would end
in a few days.
Now people are worried. They go to sleep with fear and wake tormented
by it the next morning. Even after living with the danger for months,
they have not become used to it. They pray to avoid the disaster.
Nuclear weapons, which both countries acquired in the early Nineties,
have made the difference. Abdul Qadir Khan, the father of the
Pakistan bomb, once said: ìWe will use the bomb if you ever drive us
to the wall.î
The sense now, however, is of desperation as the two countries appear
to have reached a dead end on Kashmir. In the Sixties and Seventies
there was hope for some settlement. Since then they have faced wars
and internal commotions. They have even held talks at various levels
but without any result.
The two countries have been holding their part of Kashmir, separated
by the Line of Control since 1948 when the UN ordered a ceasefire.
Islamabad wants at least the Muslim-majority valley to integrate with
it.
But Delhi maintains that when the state ruler, a Hindu, signed the
instrument of accession after the lapse of British colonial rule in
August 1947, Jammu and Kashmir became part of India. The then popular
Muslim leader, Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah, endorsed that agreement.
What is also different now is that Pakistan's President Musharraf
appears to have been using Islamic fundamentalists to infiltrate
Kashmir and indulge in murder. The predecessors of General Musharraf
also fomented the 'proxy war', but they saw to it that the 'the
movement against the subjugation by India' remained in the hands of
Kashmiris. Many of them crossed into Pakistan after the rigged 1987
state election. The question was: ballot or bullet? They chose
bullet. General Musharraf's military junta has stoked the fires of
terrorism by inducting foreigners from Sudan, Algeria and even Libya.
Cross-border terrorism of the past decade has changed since the
1960s. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, Foreign Minister in the Government of
General Ayub Khan, first tried sending Pakistani soldiers to
infiltrate Kashmir in 1964. He convinced General Ayub that there
would be an uprising in Kashmir, which was sick and tired of Delhi's
authoritarian rule. But that uprising did not take place until 1989.
In those days, the United Nations Security Council would endlessly
discuss how to stop India and Pakistan going to war. Now the crisis
has gone on for months, but the Security Council has hardly met to
discuss the problem. The problem with Kashmir is that it is almost
wholly intractable. Even if there is a dialogue, what can India give
without affecting its secular policy? Could the Line of Control, with
an autonomous Kashmir state within India, be acceptable to Pakistan?
After the Lahore talks between Atal Behari Vajpayee, the Prime
Minister, and Pakistan's ousted Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, it
looked as if a formula along these lines had begun to take shape. But
then General Musharraf ousted Mr Sharif. How can the military junta,
which has a vested interest in Kashmir, accept the same formula?
Should India wait for democracy to return to Pakistan? It is a tricky
situation. In 1961 India's first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru,
told Mr Bhutto in London: "I know that we must find a solution to the
Kashmir problem. But we have got caught in a situation which we
cannot get out of without causing damage to the systems and
structures of our respective societies."
* The author is a member of India's Upper House of Parliament;
formerly High Commissioner in London in 1990, and a correspondent for
The Times from 1960 to 1985.
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